企業在激烈的市場競爭中，如何更準確地預測訂單交貨期變得至關重要。本研究以一家國內工業電腦公司為例，探討交期預測準確性的問題。該公司長期以來使用人工經驗法則進行交期預測，但誤差較大，導致客戶抱怨和溝通困難。為解決這個問題，本文提出一套自動化的交期預測方法。 從接收客戶需求開始，到進行預測產品交期的全流程。通過使用Excel VBA進行排程自動化，考慮產能、排程方法、排程規則、物料等因素，以改善交期預測的準確性。研究結果顯示，相對於人工預測，使用VBA預測方法更為精準和穩定。 本研究強調自動化工具和方法在交期預測中的重要性。並提出將預測模型整合到公司的製造執行系統中，成為未來優化系統的雛形，為企業的長遠發展做出貢獻。 ;In the fierce market competition, how to predict order delivery time more accurately has become crucial for enterprises. This study takes a domestic industrial computer company as an example to explore the issue of delivery forecast accuracy. The company has long used manual rules of thumb to make delivery forecasts, but the errors have been large, leading to customer complaints and communication difficulties. To solve this problem, this paper proposes an automated delivery prediction method. The entire process starts from receiving customer requirements to predicting product delivery. By using Excel VBA for scheduling automation, factors such as production capacity, scheduling methods, scheduling rules, materials, etc. are considered to improve the accuracy of delivery forecasts. Research results show that compared to manual prediction, the VBA prediction method is more accurate and stable. This study highlights the importance of automated tools and methods in delivery forecasting. It is also proposed to integrate the predictive model into the company′s manufacturing execution system to become the prototype of the future optimization system and contribute to the long-term development of the company.
