多起地震事件皆肇因於同震斷層複合破裂。由於多重斷層同時破裂，造成更大的地震規模，導致嚴重傷亡以及財物損失。有鑑於此，本計畫將探討孕震構造間之互動關係、檢驗台灣地區可能造成斷層複合破裂之孕震構造，並評估可能之地震危害度。將分別利用運動學以及動力學模型，探討斷層間之破裂誘發關係。對於發震機率的評估，將以統計、物理模型，以及地震統計等方法探討之。為評估各模型之適用性，將應用於國內外發生之實際個案中。最後，將利用建制之斷層複合破裂資料庫，考量即期之地震分布，建制滾動式動態地震危害圖。計畫成果將有助於相關科學計畫及科普的推動。 ;Several seismic events are attributed to ruptures on multiple seismogenic structures during coseismic periods. Their instantaneous ruptures along large structures patches generate earthquakes with large magnitudes, resulting in fatality and damage. Thus, this proposal aims to study on interaction between seismogenic structures, indicate potential seismogenic structures that could rupture instantaneously in a coseismic period, and assess probabilistic seismic hazard. For such purpose, triggering interactions between seismogenic structures will be discussed through both kinematic and dynamic models; earthquake probability will be evaluated using statistics-based, physics-based, and seismic statistical approaches. In order to evaluate their credibility, these models will be applied in the earthquake cases. Based on the multiple-structure system database summarized through this proposal and distribution of recent earthquakes, dynamic seismic hazard map platform that can be revised in real time will be proposed. The outcomes of this proposal will be beneficial to both other research projects and promotion of popular science.
