依據108年度科技部自然司防災科技學門專題研究計畫課題重點說明(氣象領域，學門代碼：M1710)之研究課題1-1(即時與極短期暴雨強風預報技術之建立與應用)，本計畫將延續先前建立之即時預報系統，進一步結合高解析度數值天氣預報模式之資訊，來提升即時天氣預報的能力。利用回波外延之即時預報系統，在台灣地區複雜地形的表現評估，統計上能夠有２小時的預報能力。不同於過去研究學者皆嘗試整合修正回波外延以及數值天氣預報之降水資訊，此研究將結合兩種不同系統之風場資訊，目的在於：1) 透過高解析數值模式的風場，改善沒有雷達觀測回波區域之平流場資訊；2) 利用高解析數值模式之結果，其風場可以呈現複雜地形的效應，來改善即時預報系統中，平流場在台灣區域的表現。預計結合兩系統的優點後，能將即時預報的能力提升至０－３小時以上。 ;The project continues previous work to established a real-time nowcasting system over Taiwan area. This study further combines the information of high-resolution numerical weather forecasting models to improve the capability of the radar echo extrapolation nowcast system. By applying radar echo extrapolation over complex terrain over Taiwan, the performance of the nowcasting can be up to 2-hours statistically. Unlike most of previous studies, which have attempted to modify precipitation information between echo tracking and numerical weather prediction, this study would like to combine the information of wind from two different systems. The goals of this project are: 1) improving the advection flow in echo-free region through high-resolution numerical models; 2) combining the wind fields of the high-resolution numerical model which can present the effects of complex terrain, it should be able to improve the performance of the advection field in the Taiwan area. It is expected that by coupling the advantages of the two systems, the forecast skill of the nowcast can be more than 3 hours.
