| 摘要: | 2015年史無前例的國際合作，促成了永續發展目標和巴黎氣候協定 (COP21) 的簽署採用，這些新興協議將會影響各國的施政方針，導向更加永續發展的未來。本論文連結了巴黎協議以及城市非正式性。城市非正規貧困社區（貧民窟）經常被排除在全球協議的衍生政策之外；而此次協議中，首次看見各國發布各自的國家自定預期貢獻(INDCs)，以限制溫室氣體排放量、對抗氣候變遷。與此協議相關之文獻主要可區分為兩個面向：其一，許多研究以量化INDCs的總和來衡量此協議的整體有效性；其二，有些研究關注於分析可能的潛在策略，來幫助各國或各地區（多數為已開發區域）達成其宣言。這樣的面向形成了明顯的差距，例如：此協議針對開發中國家的衍生政策為何？及城市非正規貧困社區在巴黎協議以及INDCs所能發揮的作用為何？
本論文的初始假設為：開發中國家被普遍認定為氣候變遷下的弱勢族群，而在開發中國家裡，城市非正規貧困社區更是最弱勢的一群，卻被排除在全球性或是國家協議之外。本論文運用社會科學方法，分析28個高度城市化、且非正式住區極為普遍的開發中國家之INDCs，並藉此釐清貧民窟在後COP21政策中所扮演的角色。在分析的過程中，本研究發現了許多重大的問題，其中一項為所分析的國家中絕大多數都未針對貧民窟實施任何具體行動或政策。在此同時，多數的INDCs都接受了國際性有條件的財政支援以及技術轉移，這使其本身的可靠性受到限制。某種程度上，巴黎協議也同樣遭遇了京都議定書的困境，開發中國家的貢獻將會成為這新新興協議成功的關鍵，尤其是當美國──全世界第二大的溫室氣體排放國──已經公開退出巴黎協定。
考慮到開發中國家對於協議成功的重要性，並且將城市非正規貧困社區對於氣候政策的需求納入考量，本論文提出了一個貧民窟改善計畫的推行架構，此架構中的減輕策略與調適策略將有助於開發中國家達成其於協議中的承諾，同時也能改善貧民窟的適應能力、彈性以及連結性。此架構之發展係基於INDCs的結構、廣泛的文獻回顧、於菲律賓馬尼拉以及多明尼加聖地牙哥內的非正式住區進行之實地考察、以及與專家的談訪。本研究旨在藉由增加人們對這些城市非正式住區於全球尺度氣候政策中所扮演的重要角色的理解，來對現今城市非正式性的爭論及論述帶來貢獻。
;Unprecedented international cooperation in 2015 resulted in the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Climate Agreement (COP21). These emergent regimes will influence public policies to guide nations towards a more sustainable future. This thesis links the Paris Agreement to Urban Informality. Informal urban poor communities (slums) are often neglected from policies derivatives from global agreements. The agreement saw for the first time all the countries of the world proposing Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to limit greenhouse gasses emissions and combat climate change. The literature on the agreement has followed two main streams; on one side, many studies quantify the sum of the INDCs to determine the overall effectiveness of the agreement. On the other, studies focus on analyzing potential strategies that can help countries or regions (mostly in the developed world) achieve their pledges. Significant gaps have resulted from this. For instance, what will be the policies derivatives of the agreement in developing countries? And, what is the proposed role of informal urban poor communities in the Paris Agreement and INDCs?
The initial hypothesis of the thesis was that while developing countries are widely considered the most vulnerable to climate change, inside the developing world, the informal urban poor are the most vulnerable and have been left out of policies derivatives from global or national accords. This thesis analyzed, using social sciences methodologies, the INDCs of 28 highly urbanized developing countries and with high prevalence of informal settlements in order to understand the proposed role of slums in post COP21 policies. The analysis uncovered significant flaws such as that the majority of analyzed countries do not have any specific actions or policies for these territories. At the same time, most of the analyzed INDCs are conditional to international financial support and technology transfer, which limits their reliability. In a way, the wounds of the Kyoto Protocol are still present in Paris. The contributions of developing countries will be crucial for the emergent agreement to succeed; this is especially true after the United States (the planet’s second bigger contributor to global warming) publicly left the agreement.
In this line, considering the importance of developing countries for the success of the agreement and taking into account the needs of climate policies in informal urban poor communities, this thesis proposed an implementation framework for slum upgrading projects that can contribute to developing countries pledge’s with mitigation and adaption strategies, and at the same time help increase the adaptive capacity, resiliency and connectivity of slums. The framework is built upon the structure of the INDCs, as well as on extensive literature review, field research in informal settlements in Manila and Santiago de los Caballeros, and experts interviews.
This thesis aims at contributing to the current debates and discourses on urban informality by expanding the understanding of the critical role of these urban territories in global scale climate policies. |
