聯合國IPCC 2007 年報告指出，20 世紀全球平均表面溫度已經升高了 0.6±0.2°C，並預測未來每20年將升高0.2°C；到2100年時，海平面將上升0.28-0.58 公尺。海水面上升的結果將使臨海低地遭到淹沒、土地侵蝕加速。氣溫持續增加將會導致海水位上升及極端天氣(暴雨及乾旱)頻率增加，致使沿海低窪地區淹水、洪水與乾旱的強度與頻率增加，對於人民生命財產安全造成嚴重威脅。氣候暖化將有可能導致更強烈的熱帶氣旋(颱風與颶風)，更大的陣風及更強烈的降水；另一可能性為非典型(或稱為異常型)颱風將會增加，或是其變異性將會擴大。由於台灣位於熱帶氣旋的常經要道，我们必須針對氣候變遷對於颱風之發生個數、強度、及行進路徑的可能影響進行瞭解，以使國人儘早因應，確保人民生命財產安全。吾人對於非典型颱風的結構特徵、颱風伴隨的中尺度對流系統、及颱風引發的西南氣流所導致之豪大雨等現象，目前的認知都相當有限。本計畫將分析歷年來台灣地區異常(非典型)颱風的中尺度結構特徵及其伴隨風雨分佈，建立起概念模式，以協助氣象人員提早辨識。According to the 2007 IPCC report by the United Nations, the average surface temperature of the earth has been rising for 0.6±0.2oC on global scale in the 20th century and will keep increasing at a rate of 0.2oC per two decades in the future. IPCC AR4 predicts that the average sea level of the earth will rise by 0.28-0.58 meter by the year 2100. The impact of climate change will lead to the flooding of the low-land areas by the sea and the influx of sea water on land. Consequently, it will affect our water resources or water supply. The climate change will also increase the frequency of extreme weather (heavy rainfall and drought), thus flood will likely to occur more often especially in those low land areas by the sea. The calamities of drought and landslide hazard will also increase as the result. Eventually, the lives, properties, and security of those people in the areas affected by climate change will be seriously threatened. Global warming may lead to more and stronger tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) with stronger gusty winds and heavier rainfalls; it may also increase atypical (or abnormal) tropical cyclones, or enhance its temporal and spatial variations. Because Taiwan is a subtropical island located on the path frequently passed by typhoons, we need to enhance our understanding of the possible impacts of global warming on typhoon’s occurrence frequency, intensity, and tracks, in order to prepare for typhoon damage and protect human lives and property. For abnormal typhoons, our current understandings are quite limited for the structural characteristics, their associated mesoscale convective systems, and the heavy rainfalls induced by the accompanying southwesterly flows. This project is proposed to analyze the structural characteristics and the accompanying precipitation and winds for these atypical typhoons. The conceptual models will be established in order to help the weather forecasters identify thes abnormal typhoons. 研究期間：10008 ~ 10107
